Welcome to Lib Dem Newswire #190, and as it’s nearly the season of gift giving a reminder that you can get the full paid-for version of my weekly polling newsletter, The Week in Polls, free for 60 days with this special offer for LDN readers:
There has been a big migration of Liberal Democrats from X to Bluesky in the last few days, particularly with many of the party’s MPs now trying out the latter. If you are also wanting to put your toe in the water, these links should help.
Finally, before we get stuck into this edition, congratulations to our councillors newly elected since last time, along with their agents: Adrian Waite, Jonathan Williams, Peter Law, Mike Baggaley, Louise Spence, Kerrie Bradburn, Clare Tevlin and Nikki Stocks.
Happy reading,
Mark
P.S. If you haven’t had a chance to read the previous edition of Lib Dem Newswire it is online here: Do “Winning Here” posters and bar charts really work? And if you’re not a yet subscriber you can sign up to get future editions direct to yourself:
📚: 101 Ways To Win An Election, Polling UnPacked, Bad News
A guaranteed way to lose votes
Here’s my latest report for Liberal Democrat members and supporters. These reports also appear on the party website.
The importance of next May
A blessing and a curse of a democracy is that elections keep on coming around. So while this year has been an exhausting one of election campaigns already, we also need to be turning our eyes to the local elections coming up in May.
Most of the seats up in May were last contested when the Conservatives were still on an electoral high back in 2021. Therefore they provide us with an important opportunity to follow up on our major gains from the Conservatives at both local and Westminster level since 2021. They also provide us with an important opportunity to continue to grow our strength more broadly, especially in areas where, now with a Labour government in Westminster, new possibilities are opening up.
But there is one sure-fire, 100% guaranteed, rock-solid way of repelling voters from us, and it is one we use far too often.
It is not having a Liberal Democrat on the ballot paper. Zero votes for the party guaranteed.
Both Labour and the Conservatives, for example, get very close now to having a full slate of candidates in local elections. We do not.
The good news is that since in the last Parliament we have collectively started focusing on really raising our candidate numbers in council contests, we have made good progress, both for by-elections and for the May rounds of elections.
Standing candidates is not only about credibility and relevance. It is also the way to get more people into the habit of regularly voting for the Liberal Democrats – a crucial step in building the sort of larger core vote for the party that will help us succeed more often.
With us having regained our third place in the House of Commons, continuing that progress in candidate numbers to help further establish ourselves is even more important next May.
If you have local elections coming up in your area, there are great training materials and supporting documents on how to increase your candidate numbers, and how to run a proper approval process. Drop me a line if you need help finding the support you need.
Good luck!
A 15th century technology still reigns supreme
The Electoral Commission’s report into the May and July elections contains some unsurprising, though reassuring, news. Asked how they came across information about candidates for the general election, the most common answers people gave were:
a leaflet or flyer from a candidate or political party (63%)
TV news (48%)
social media (39%)
a news website (35%)
TV debates (35%)
word of mouth (24%)
Gutenberg’s 15th century invention made the printing of such leaflets first possible. The technology has evolved since then but then, but it is still very much the primary technology for election communication.
The full report is here with other important findings, including on the nature of harassment that candidates face and how that is changing.
A lesson from the USA
The electoral news from the US is a reminder to us all about how important it is for liberals to step up, to focus on the issues that matter most to voters - and to deliver on those issues. Incumbent parties and candidates who do not leave people feeling better off at the end of their term are treated harshly by the electorate.
Which is why, turning our eyes back to British politics, it will be so important for our 72 MPs to be able to show voters at the next Westminster general election that they have delivered on the issues which we campaigned on in the general election: in particular that much-repeated trio of health and social care; the cost of living; and the environment, especially sewage dumping.
How we deliver on those is different - and harder - in opposition than in government, but deliver we must. That will also be much easier in this Parliament given the greatly expanded Parliamentary opportunities that come from having 72 MPs. It is why, the day after Donald Trump’s election, Ed Davey was able to ask at PMQs about the implications for Ukraine, European defence and tariffs (and while the new Conservative Leader was squandering her questions asking for the PM to apologise for old tweets).
It is also why we now have three - three! - Select Committee chairs in the House of Commons - Layla Moran (Health and Social Care), Alistair Carmichael (Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) and Jamie Stone (Petitions). In total there are now 55 - 55! - select committee posts held by Liberal Democrat MPs.
That is a massive expansion in our party’s ability to use Parliament to hold to account the government - and other powerful organisations too who can be hauled in front of select committees. It is also a massive expansion in our ability to get publicity for the party through the media. And it would not have been possible without the kind support of people like yourself, getting us from 15 to 72 MPs. Thank you.
Congratulations to…
The three local parties who have recruited the most new members locally in the last month are Colchester (England), Glasgow City (Scotland) and Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe (Wales). Well done to everyone involved in all three - and it is good to see those membership efforts happening not only in held Parliamentary seats but more widely too.
Congratulations also to Caroline Pidgeon, former councillor and London Assembly and now member of the House of Lords, who has just been elected chair of the English Liberal Democrats. That also means she will be joining the Federal Board.
The location of our Federal Conferences
“Why doesn't the Lib Dem Federal Conference ever come to <insert lovely venue near you>?” That is a common question, and now Federal Conference Committee Cllr Nick da Costa has written a very helpful explainer. It goes into what goes into making a venue suitable and why the unusual requirements of a party conference means there is much less choice over venue than you might expect. You can read it here.
Autumn Conference 2025
Speaking of which, the Federal Autumn Conference 2025 dates and venue have been released. It will be 20-23 September 2025, at the Bournemouth International Centre (BIC), with the HQ and fringe hotel being the Highcliff Marriott Hotel.
You can book accommodation here, and conference registration will open after our Spring Conference next year.
As this will be my last Federal Conference as your President, I particularly hope to see many of you there.
Other party news
Alyssa Gilbert has joined our Federal Policy Committee (FPC) after another member resigned from the committee.
The Federal Constitution has been updated following the changes made at our Brighton Conference.
Do you have questions on any of this report, or other Lib Dem matters? Then please drop me a line on president@libdems.org.uk. Do also get in touch if you would like to invite me to do a Zoom call with your local party or party body.
Podcast: Does proportional representation produce weak governments?
The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts takes a look at recent research into the impact of electoral reform on the stability of governments. Does PR mean less stable government?
Listen to my discussion with the research’s author Dylan Difford to find out: Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube or on the web.
🎧Find all the episodes of Never Mind The Bar Charts here.
📟 Sign up for a dedicated email notification each time a new episode appears here.
What can we learn from polls and focus groups about the general election?
You can keep up with the evolving answers to that with my new(-ish) email list, reviewing each book about the general election as it comes out. The latest edition looks at Lord Ashcroft’s analysis of his own polling and focus groups:
Labour tax rises to hit NHS: Lib Dems in the news
Health and social care
Warning tax rises could force care homes to close: Ed Davey again, this time on the BBC.
Labour's national insurance raid could 'cost 2 million GP appointments'.
NHS Trusts experience equivalent of three fires and one flood a day: Lib Dem number crunching hits the Daily Mail.
Ed Davey calls carers overpayments a 'scandal of huge proportions'.
Environment and water industry
Ed Davey challenges Prime Minister to "seize back the world leadership on climate change" at PMQs:
Labour getting it wrong
Commuters will be hit by a “bus tax” that is as costly as a 1p rise in income tax.
Almost 6 in 10 think the Chancellor is wrong on winter fuel payment cut.
Rachel Reeves ‘missed opportunity’ to raise £900m from online casinos.
Europe
Ed Davey piles pressure on Keir Starmer with call for ‘urgent’ Brexit rethink.
Ed Davey urges Starmer to ‘Trump-proof’ UK with closer European ties.
Housing
Success at Beech Tree Place: Lib Dems getting housing built, again.
Other issues
“What a superb example of why we should be proud of the BBC and deeply suspicious of the true loyalties of those who would seek to undermine it”: Tim Farron on the BBC.
Sarah Olney MP on Lib Dem calls for an elected House of Lords.
Christine Jardine writes to mark Trans Awareness Week.
Ed Davey's response to the US elections:
And don’t forget…
📲 You can get updates like the above in real time through my WhatsApp updates 2-3 times a week. Sign up details here.
Which Lib Dem MP is on which select committee?
In case you missed them first time, here is a selection of posts from my websites and newsletters since last time:
Lib Dem Select Committee members in full.
How political leaflets used to look: when parties mixed and matched their colours.
Why I won’t be drawing my usual conclusions from the US elections.
Point for victory. (Got your own pointing photo? Hit reply and you may feature next time!)
Campaigning in Brent and in Barking and Dagenham.
The US politician desperate for you to know he lives alone with a dog.
What the polls are saying
Votes
Leaders
For more details on both the above tables, and for updates in-between editions of LDN, take a look on my website here.
Issues
In other polling news…
Council by-elections round-up
The by-elections since last time have started to see steady Lib Dem gains, sometimes partially offset by losses and sometimes not. We’ve also seen Reform’s increasing presence in by-elections sometimes helping Labour win by splitting votes with the Conservatives.
The net seat changes are Lib Dem +3, Reform +2, Conservatives +2, Green -1, Labour -2, SNP -4.
This brings net seat changes since the last May local elections to Conservative +16, Green +4, Reform +3, Lib Dem +1, SNP -1, Independent/others -4 and Labour -19.
In other changes, a councillor has switched to independents in Lewes and Central Bedfordshire.
Can you help?
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And finally…
Josh Babarinde has found yet another way to talk about how much sunshine Eastbourne gets.
If you enjoyed this newsletter, why not forward it to a friend or share it online:
Thank you and best wishes,
Mark