Bar charts at the ready (LDN#195)
Welcome to Lib Dem Newswire #195 and before we get stuck into this edition, congratulations to our councillors newly elected since last time, along with their agents: Nicki Vecqueray, Ruth Leach, Andy Bell, Prad Bains, Fabian King, Bradley Nelson, Anna Weightman, Patrick Weightman, Pat Gelhar, June Buckley, Ronald Kelley and Sharon Falshaw.
Good luck also to everyone out campaigning for the May elections. Don’t forget to send me your pointing photos…
A quick reminder that it’s the time of year for my annual appeal to ask if you're able to sign up for a small regular donation to help offset the costs of my email newsletters, podcasts and so on:
As a special thank you, if you sign up for a new monthly donation, I will send you a link to get the paid-for version of my polling newsletter, The Week in Polls, free for a whole year.
A reminder too that you can sign up via WhatsApp for Lib Dem news updates in-between these editions. Details here.
Happy reading,
Mark
P.S. If you haven’t had a chance to read the previous edition of Lib Dem Newswire it is online here: An important Lib Dem vote on Saturday. That was a special edition about a vote at Federal Conference (motion F10 on candidates, which passed by about 4:1) and the last ‘normal’ edition is also online: Lib Dem success, in a graph.
Mike 4 Mayor
One of the most exciting electoral opportunities for the Liberal Democrats this May is the new Hull and East Riding Mayor contest, where Lib Dem leader of Hull, Mike Ross, is in with an excellent chance.
I was up there for Mike’s campaign launch, and it is impressive to see how many people from across the region are travelling to help. Targeting to win is not just for general elections.
More about Mike’s campaign, including how to donate or help campaign on the ground, on www.mike4mayor.org.uk.
I also - for reasons I frankly do not understand - was photographed pointing at Shaffaq Mohammed’s car. Apparently it is a Lib Dem thing to do when Shaff is around…
A letter to The Observer
Ed Davey has a new book coming
A new book by Ed Davey is out in May and you can pre-order it now from Amazon, Waterstones or Bookshop.org.
(And remember, pre-orders make a big difference to how much prominence a book gets on launch.)
What comes after success?
That is one of the questions posed - and, hopefully, answered - in What next for the Liberal Democrats?, the pamphlet by myself and Jim Williams. It is available in full for free online:
(When you open it up, you can go to File/Download to get a pdf version if that is how you prefer to read longer documents.)
Bar charts at the ready
Here’s my latest report for Liberal Democrat members and supporters. These reports also appear on the party website.
Our electoral system cannot cope
Securing 30% of the vote in a general election used to be a general election losing vote share for Labour or the Conservatives. But it is now quite possible that the winner of the next Westminster general election will not top 30%, and that we will have four political parties within 10-15 points of each other. First past the post is really not designed for that…
This comes with two important implications for ourselves. One is the continuing importance of local elections, both in their own right and also as a way of establishing credibility for Westminster Parliament (and indeed Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, along with Mayor) contests. Even if we finished a long way back on vote share in the previous election, gains at local election level can put us in the race - and show voters that we are in the race.
The other is the continuing importance of bar charts. Tactical voting was not just a one-off to remove the Conservatives from 10 Downing Street last year. As we have seen in council by-elections since last summer, it continues to be important - just as it continued to be so after the 1997 Conservative landslide defeat too. (In fact, anti-Conservative tactical voting was still a big factor in 2005, two general elections and one Iraq war on from 1997.)
So don’t mothball those bar chart templates quite yet.
Speaking of bar charts, here is one that shows how impressively our local campaign teams over-perform in council by-elections:
Federal Conference success
Many thanks to everyone involved in putting on such a well-run Federal Conference in Harrogate. Another impressive team effort by staff and volunteers!
Among the important measures passed were F9, Free to be who you are, which reaffirmed our support for trans rights and F10, about reforming our Parliamentary candidate process. This reached the two-thirds majority required (it looked like it passed about 80%-20%) and so now moves to the stage of state party approval.
I know it is an issue which raised many passions, and people were particularly heartfelt about the need for consultation - an important point for us all as we move on to the next stage.
Much of the debate focused on the two-thirds of constituencies which did not get to select their own candidate in the last Parliament. Helping more of them select, and in enough time to train and support their candidates, is an important task for this Parliament. Helping more of our non-target seats get candidates in place sooner, and then properly supporting and training those candidates, could be a massive step change in how we spread the breadth of our success across the country.
Conference also ratified the new set of election regulations for our big internal elections due this autumn (timetable here). The Board has also reappointed David Crowther to a new three year term as Federal Returning Officer.
If you did not make it to Conference - or did but want to relive any of the moments - you can watch again on the party’s YouTube channel.
Extra thanks to Jeremy Hargreaves, Nicholas da Costa and Daisy Cooper for kindly stepping in to cover things for me after I had to miss the event due to a bout of ill health.
See you all in Bournemouth in September!
Our fabulous Party Awards winners
Harrogate also saw our latest round of Party Awards, with a fabulous quartet of colleagues having their contributions recognised:
Albert Ingham Award
Named in honour of one of our party’s election agent greats, this award goes to Ed Thornley for his work on a cracking by-election win in Edinburgh in November. Thanks to Ed’s dedication, skill and commitment over five long months, we started in fourth place on 12% of the vote and ended up with more than treble that - with nearly double the vote of the second place candidate.
Bertha Bowness Fischer Award
This award is named after the pioneering female Liberal election agent and this time is awarded to someone who has already made their mark despite only recently joining us - Lou Timlin. Lou joined in 2023 but has already been a campaigner, diversity officer, Fleet super user, press officer and elected a councillor too. Following someone’s bereavement, she even stepped in at no notice to be agent in Wokingham for the general election - helping us win the seat on a 19% swing.
Laura Grimond Award
Dedicated to those who do unsung work behind the scenes, this award went to Dawn Davidson, who has, for over two decades, played a major role as an assessor, returning officer and regional candidates chair. Dawn has led the work on finding and encouraging a more diverse range of candidates, led on moving assessment online during Covid and has designed and delivered numerous assessment centres.
Leader’s Award
Awarded to someone who has shown exemplary leadership skills - this time to former leader of Bath & North East Somerset Council, Paul Crossley. Paul has been a councillor across five different decades, twice council leader for two full terms, being hugely supportive of his colleagues and steering a newly formed council through many difficult decisions to bring lasting benefit to the area, including the Thermae Bath Spa, Britain's only natural thermal Spa and a major draw of visitors to Bath.
Congratulations also to…
Thank you also for the fabulous efforts put in by the local parties who were the top recruiters in the last month:
England: Central Birmingham (again!)
Scotland: Central Scotland
Wales: Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
A reminder if you are recruiting members locally: if you use libdems.org.uk/join-local then your local party will get extra payment to recognise the local recruitment. (If someone joins via another route, you can also get the membership team to tag them as a local recruit by emailing help@libdems.org.uk).
Party decisions upheld
The High Court has ruled in the party’s favour, upholding the decision of our independent complaints process to expel Jo Hayes over her treatment of a member of staff and her attempt to stop a complaint against someone else. The court has now also ruled that she will have to pay the party’s costs for this case which she brought against us, with an initial payment of £250,000 required.
The Federal Appeals Panel (Case 64) upheld the power of the Federal Board to agree definitions for use by our complaints process, in this case one related to bullying.
Do you have questions on any of this report, or other Lib Dem matters? Then please drop me a line on president@libdems.org.uk. Do also get in touch if you would like to invite me to do a Zoom call with your local party or party body.
A revealing insight into Starmer’s Labour
Podcast: Jeremy Thorpe – European triumph, political leadership and personal scandal
The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts is another in the occasional series looking back at previous party leaders with Duncan Brack.
This time we pick over Jeremy Thorpe’s career – securing Britain’s place in Europe, leading the Liberal Party to national prominence and then mired in scandal. What to make of it all?
You can take a listen in your favourite podcast app, as well as on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube or the web.
🎧Find all the episodes of Never Mind The Bar Charts here.
📟 Sign up for a dedicated email notification each time a new episode appears here.
Patient spends 12 hours on a trolley in a hospital corridor
Health and social care
Helen Morgan: “My constituent Emma, who having been diagnosed with sepsis spent 48 hours in a fit-to-sit area, and then 12 hours on a trolley in an X-ray corridor before finally being admitted.”
Freddie van Mierlo: “The care sector, people in need of care and council budgets simply cannot wait any longer; the social care review needs to be completed within a year, not the three currently scheduled.”
Economy and cost of living
Daisy Cooper: Chancellor must rule out cutting Digital Services Tax and leaving £5 billion black hole in public finances.
Joshua Reynolds: “It's quite shameful to see HSBC hide behind the lines given to it by the Chinese authorities.”
Daisy Cooper: “We’ve always regarded ourselves as the party of small business. But now it’s very much about making that case to others that we are the party of small business.”
Environment and water industry
Ed Davey: “This has to be the final nail in the coffin for Ofwat, a regulator that has time and again proven it is completely inadequate to protect customers and our beautiful environment.”
Donald Trump, Elon Musk and Ukraine
Ed Davey: Lib Dems are the antidote to populism.
Ed Davey: “Why I support The Independent’s campaign to oppose Donald Trump’s assault on democracy and liberty.”
Mike Martin: “How much more evidence do you need that the US is totally unreliable?”
Cameron Thomas: “Zelensky is a hero, a modern day Winston Churchill, and he deserves to be supported, as do the Ukrainian people.”
Housing
John Milne: “New houses need new GP practices.”
Education
Adam Dance: “Our current educational framework, with its patchwork approach to dyslexia, is failing our children.”
Local government news
Lib Dem-led council expands recycling.
Congratulations to Lib Dem Mayor Peter Taylor and the Watford team for being named best in the UK.
Other issues
Senedd Member Jane Dodds explains why she allowed the Welsh budget to pass.
Helen Morgan on Labour's welfare cuts.
Tim Farron explains the Lib Dem policy on farmers.
Tom Gordon: “It's a travesty that in a country as wealthy as Britain we have
millions of children in poverty.”
Victoria Collins: “We must build public trust in AI and shift the culture to recognise its opportunities.”
People news
Congratulations to Daisy Cooper, Layla Moran and Joan Walmsley for making it into Women in Westminster: The 100.
Congratulations Lou and Tom Morrison on the birth of Poppy!
Shaffaq Mohammed takes his seat in the House of Lords.
Cotswold council leader Joe Harris to resign.
Stockport council leader Mark Hunter to step down.
Other party news
Find members of the Federal Conference Committee (FCC) on Bluesky.
📲 You can get more updates like the above in real time through my WhatsApp updates 2-3 times a week. Sign up details here.
Lib Dems do best at beating Reform
In case you missed them first time, here is a selection of posts from my websites and newsletters since last time:
Taking on Trump and Farage: Ed Davey’s conference speech.
Lib Dems do best at beating Reform.
Reform voters split on whether they’d be better off without Nigel Farage.
Lib Dems call for emergency legislation to seize Russian assets and support Ukraine.
Lib Dems bring in more money than Labour in Q4 2024.
Pointing, with an arm extender.
What the polls are saying
Votes
Leaders
For more details on both the above tables, and for updates in-between editions of LDN, take a look on my website here.
Issues
In other polling news…
Selections news
Selections for the next Scottish Parliament elections continue with Adam Harley selected for Strathkelvin and Bearsden.
Meanwhile in England, Paul Duffy has been selected for the Runcorn & Helsby Parliamentary by-election.
Good luck to them both.
Council by-elections round-up
The by-elections since last time have seen another landslide win in Tim Farron land, the Lib Dems beating Reform to take a seat off the Conservatives along with seeing off Reform in Devon, a loss to the Conservatives in Three Rivers and the defeat of a Reform candidate with particularly unpleasant views in the North West.
The net seats changes are Independent/Others +2, SNP +2, Reform +1, Conservatives +/-0, Lib Dem +/-0, Green +/-0, Plaid +/-0, Labour -5.
This brings net seat changes since the last May local elections to Conservative +23, Reform +12, Green +4, SNP +2, Plaid +/-0, Lib Dem -3, Independent/Others -3 and Labour -35.
On vote shares, the picture is:
In other changes, a former Labour councillor has joined the Lib Dems in Dudley and a councillor has joined the Lib Dems in East Devon. But a councillor has joined the Greens in West Sussex, one has joined Labour in Derby, one has joined the Conservatives in the Forest of Dean and one Reform in Cheshire East. Five have gone independent in Buckinghamshire, two in Kingston-upon-Hull and one has gone independent in each of Elmbridge, Epsom & Ewell, Fareham, Hertsmere, Wakefield and in Redcar (because, the local newspaper reports, “she had begun work in the Civil Service … and her new role meant she had to be independent of any political affiliation”).
Can you help?
Liberal Democrat Newswire is provided for free but isn’t free to run. Thank you so much to all the kind readers who donate to help cover its costs. It's quick and easy to sign up for a small regular donation with your debit card using GoCardless:
£10 per month / £5 per month / £2.50 per month / £1 per month
Thank you! (Other donation options, including by PayPal or cheque, are here.)
And finally…
Popular Lib Dem given stern dressing down after crossing the floor.
If you enjoyed this newsletter, why not forward it to a friend or share it online:
Thank you and best wishes,
Mark
Note: Links to books in the newsletter are usually affiliate links that generate a commission for sales made.