Lib Dem success, in a graph (LDN#193)
Welcome to Lib Dem Newswire #193 and before we get stuck into this edition, congratulations to our councillors newly elected since last time, along with their agents: Josie Mullen, Chetna Jamthe, Richard Wilson, Liam Pollard, Helena Goldwater, Peter Wilkins and Charlie Clinton.1
A reminder also that if you are moving over to using Bluesky, you can find a Starter Pack of accounts and also a Lib Dem list to help get you going here.
A reminder too that you can sign up via WhatsApp for Lib Dem news updates in-between these editions. Details here.
Happy reading,
Mark
P.S. If you haven’t had a chance to read the previous edition of Lib Dem Newswire it is online here: A liberal future for Britain.
Success, in a graph
You already know the story about Liberal Democrat success at the general election: huge increase in seats secured by careful targeting.
But this graph shows a take on the figures that had passed me by before. For the first time since 1945, the Lib Dems did better than the Conservatives at converting seats to votes under first-past-the-post:
Striking (and for Liberal Democrats, hopeful) to note too that across all three parties, a sharp improvement in that ratio is not usually undone at the following election.
What comes after success?
That is one of the questions posed - and, hopefully, answered - in What next for the Liberal Democrats?, the pamphlet by myself and Jim Williams. It is available in full for free online:
(When you open it up, you can go to File/Download to get a pdf version if that is how you prefer to read longer documents.)
Looking forward to Harrogate Conference
Here’s my latest report for Liberal Democrat members and supporters. These reports also appear on the party website.
Federal Conference is nearly here
It is fabulous we are not only returning to Harrogate for a Liberal Democrat conference, but that now it is also a venue with a Liberal Democrat MP, following Tom Gordon’s win last July.
The very first winning general election campaign I worked on was that for Phil Willis, also in Harrogate, back in 1997. Back then, we all thought the 1997 election result across the country was a cracking one for our party, winning 46 seats. But we far surpassed that in 2024. People will still smile while saying ‘72’ for a good while yet.
But elections keep on coming, and we have a great opportunity with the May local elections - or rather, the reduced number of them after Labour and the Conservatives decided that democracy is inconvenient when changes are coming to local government.
Even with the reduction in elections, they are still a great opportunity to strengthen our position in the constituencies we won last year, and a great opportunity to build up our strength more broadly too.
For all the damage done to local government by years of cuts and centralisation, billions of pounds in public services will be at stake in the May elections as local government is still at the heart of so many crucial services.
Which makes these elections important not only for our future growth as a party, but also for our immediate power to turn our policies into action to improve people’s lives.
Policies that we will be updating and refreshing at our Federal Conference for the new political landscape we are in. Alongside that we will have the opportunity to discuss lessons from the general election, along with excellent training, a variety of fringes and stalls and much catching up with colleagues from around the country.
Whether by coming in person, or joining online, I hope you join other members by taking part in our Harrogate Conference.
The Agenda and Directory are up on the party website, as is the Federal Board report to Conference, which is in the Reports to Conference booklet.
That Board report includes explanations of the two items of business the Board is proposing in addition to our report: updates to our election regulations, primarily in response to the recommendations of the review carried out by Nick Manners, and a very short constitutional amendment regarding Liberal Democrats Ltd.
Party strategy
Harrogate Conference will also include a consultation session as part of evolving our strategy for the new circumstances of this Westminster Parliamentary cycle. The Board has produced a short note to help give that session some context, which you can read via the party website. If you are not able to make the session, you can also send in comments via president@libdems.org.uk.
Harrogate will also see a presentation from the General Election Review, another important input into our plans for this cycle. The report is available to read here.
Measuring success
If there were media outlets as keen to talk up the Liberal Democrats as some are to talk up Reform, then we would be hearing a lot about how Lib Dem support has surged to increase by half. That is because so far in this Parliament, we are averaging 12% in the polls, compared with 8% for the same period in the last Parliament.
While the increase may cause us quiet satisfaction, and the absence of media coverage for it quiet frustration, the most important point about the increase is that it shows one of our key assumptions for the 2024 general election playing out. That is, that national vote share is - in the current set of circumstances - a consequence of success rather than a cause of success.
In other words, we managed a history-breaking seat haul alongside a small increase in our vote share because, under first past the post, national vote share is only very weakly correlated with success for a party like ours. Hence 2024 (72 seats) was a triumph while 1983 (23 seats) was not, even though the Alliance’s vote share in 1983 was just over double ours in 2024.
Remembering to focus on winning under the political system in front of us served us well in the last Westminster Parliamentary cycle, and it will do so again in this.
Internal election news
The three year term limit for the Federal Returning Officer comes up later this year, and after an advertisement to all members followed by an interview process, the Federal Board has re-appointed David Crowther for the next three years. Many thanks to David for being willing to take on this task again.
We also are given the task under our election rules of setting the expense limits for the elections to Federal Party President and Vice President responsible for working with ethnic minority communities. Both of those posts are elected in a ballot of all party members, and, taking into account inflation since the last elections (especially in postage costs), the Board decided to set the expense limit at £25,000 for both contests.
At the February Board meeting we also agreed to the process, including advertising to members, for filling the posts on the Federal Appeals Panel (FAP) and Disciplinary Sub-Group (DSG) which come up later in the year. The names for the FAP will need to go to Federal Conference in the Autumn for final decision.
As with other volunteer posts which the Board fills, the advertisements will appear in due course at www.libdems.org.uk/work-for-us.
Congratulations to…
Haboon Adan and Attia Aslam have been appointed as the two new Vice Chairs of the Lib Dem Racial Diversity Campaign (RDC), to work alongside the Chair, Chris French. Good luck in your new roles!
Thank you also for the fabulous efforts put in by the local parties who were the top recruiters in the last month:
England: Central Birmingham, Chesham & Amersham and Southwark Borough - all tied with each other
Scotland: Highlands
Wales: Cardiff & the Vale of Glamorgan and Swansea Bay - also tied with each other
A reminder if you are recruiting members locally: if you use libdems.org.uk/join-local then your local party will get extra payment to recognise the local recruitment. (If someone joins via another route, you can also get the membership team to tag them as a local recruit by emailing help@libdems.org.uk).
Winning against Labour
You can join ALDC, LGA Lib Dems and colleagues from around the country who are in Labour facing areas for an in-person training event on Saturday 8 March in Manchester. More details, including how to book, are on the ALDC website.
Thank you
Thank you for the very many kind messages about my recent appointment to the House of Lords. But there is a much bigger thanks due as well.
Although I'm the one lucky enough to have started a new job this month, I know full well that opportunity would have never occurred without our growing success as a party over the last few years - a success that is due the dedication, commitment, perseverance, and love of pointing at things of thousands of members, supporters, and staff all around the country.
Without your commitment, I would not have got this wonderful opportunity. My sincere thanks.
Do you have questions on any of this report, or other Lib Dem matters? Then please drop me a line on president@libdems.org.uk. Do also get in touch if you would like to invite me to do a Zoom call with your local party or party body.
Podcast: How to explain, and beat, populism
The latest episode of Never Mind The Bar Charts sees Peter Kellner join me to discuss a new report on what is going wrong with our politics, and the solutions. No surprise then that our conversation focused on populism, its causes and how liberals can defeat it:
You can take a listen in your favourite podcast app, as well as on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube or the web.
🎧Find all the episodes of Never Mind The Bar Charts here.
📟 Sign up for a dedicated email notification each time a new episode appears here.
Ed Davey has been reading Donald Trump's book
Health and social care
"The Conservatives left the health service and care system in a disaster state, Labour's failure to act is making it worse": Ed Davey.
Half of new hospitals promised by Boris Johnson will not be built for years, and Helen Morgan is not happy.
Sewage leaks and ops delayed: life at hospitals awaiting rebuilding.
Jess Brown-Fuller on NHS compensation payments soaring: "These figures expose the true cost of years of neglect under the previous Conservative government".
Labour's three year timetable on social care is ridiculous, says Ed Davey.
Economy and cost of living
Shock poll reveals nine in ten use alternatives to central heating this winter.
AI summit: missed opportunity to back British tech businesses.
Number of English farms down by a quarter in less than 20 years.
Environment and water industry
Charlie Maynard calls for Thames Water to be put into special measures.
Roz Savage’s Climate and Nature Bill secures green concessions from the government.
Rachel Gilmour supports calls for a tidal lagoon in the Bristol Channel.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk
Why I support The Independent’s campaign to oppose Donald Trump’s assault on democracy and liberty: Ed Davey
Ed Davey has been reading Donald Trump's book.
“Of all the things Elon Musk has said, this is the worst”: Ed Davey. (What odds it has been overtaken by something else by the time you read this?)
Ed Davey asks at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) if the PM will draw up plans for tariffs on Tesla cars.
"Almost every major British political party has bent the knee to Donald Trump. The Liberal Democrats are happy to stay standing" - Politico on the Lib Dem criticisms of Trump.
“Bizarre but also dangerous”: Calum Miller on Donald Trump’s Gaza plan.
Europe
Youth Mobility Scheme news is a victory for common sense says James MacCleary.
Keir Starmer accused by Ed Davey of having his head in the sand over cost of Brexit.
A conspiracy of silence from Labour and Conservatives over Brexit.
At PMQs, Ed Davey calls on Keir Starmer to open talks on a new trade deal with Europe:
International and defence
Lib Dems call for increased defence spending.
Layla Moran talks about the future for Gaza on The News Agents podcast.
Local government news
Anna Sabine says local authorities need extra funding.
Daisy Cooper on the financial pressures on councils: "Our social care sector is on the brink of collapse".
Thousands of families auto enrolled for free school meals in initiative by Lib Dem led council.
Other issues
Lib Dems strike budget deal with Labour in Wales.
Domestic abuse crackdown takes a step forward, writes Josh Babarinde.
Christine Jardine speaks in Parliament to mark LGBT+ History Month.
Labour's plans fails to provide a "humane, legally sound and effective framework" for immigration and asylum - Lisa Smart.
David Chadwick calls for new crime agency to tackle online fraud.
Wendy Chamberlain hopes lottery law change will hand hundreds of millions to charity.
People news
Congratulations to Lib Dem staffers Jack Coulson and Felix Andrew for respectively winning Lib Dem Staffer of the Year and Best Newcomer in the Parliamentary Staff of the Year Awards.
Mark Cole, once the youngest Cardigan mayor in living memory, is back as a councillor.
Ed Davey reveals the campaign stunts his team vetoed.
Shetland MSP Beatrice Wishart announces she will not seek re-election at the next Scottish Parliament election.
Tributes paid to Mick Bradley, former Lord Mayor of York, who has died.
Other party news
Winning Against Labour Conference: in-person training event, Saturday 8 March, Manchester.
📲 You can get updates like the above in real time through my WhatsApp updates 2-3 times a week. Sign up details here.
Which elections are cancelled?
In case you missed them first time, here is a selection of posts from my websites and newsletters since last time:
Pointing at things, with enthusiasm.
What the polls are saying
Votes
Local votes
Leaders
For more details on both the above tables, and for updates in-between editions of LDN, take a look on my website here.
Issues
In other polling news…
Selections news
Lorna Dupré has been selected for the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayor contest, while Oli Henman has been selected for the West of England Mayor. Turning to the next Scottish Parliament elections, Sanne Dijkstra-Downie has been selected for Edinburgh Northern.
Good luck to them all.
Council by-elections round-up
The by-elections since last time have seen the first Lib Dem by-election win over Labour in Liverpool since 1997, retaining control of Wokingham on the Mayor’s casting vote, successful defences in Stevenage and Brent and a spread of new candidates in wards previously not contested by the Lib Dems.
The net seat changes are Reform +4, Independent/Others +2, Conservatives +1, SNP +1, Green +/-0, Plaid +/-0, Lib Dem -2 and Labour -6.
This brings net seat changes since the last May local elections to Conservative +23, Reform +11, Green +4, Plaid +/-0, SNP 0, Lib Dem -3, Independent/Others -5 and Labour -30.
On vote shares, the picture is:
In other changes, councillors have switched to the Liberal Democrats in Devon and Somerset but have left the party in North Somerset and Westmorland & Furness.
Can you help?
Liberal Democrat Newswire is provided for free but isn’t free to run. Thank you so much to all the kind readers who donate to help cover its costs. It's quick and easy to sign up for a small regular donation with your debit card using GoCardless:
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Thank you! (Other donation options, including by PayPal or cheque, are here.)
And finally…
The old Liberal Democrat, and before that SDP, HQ in Cowley Street is on the market. The inside has changed rather since the party was there.
If you enjoyed this newsletter, why not forward it to a friend or share it online:
Thank you and best wishes,
Mark
Note: Links to books in the newsletter are usually affiliate links that generate a commission for sales made.
I try to include parish, town and community councillors in this list. As there is no comprehensive database of those by-elections, apologies to those I miss. Please let me know of any omissions and I will include them next time.